Feels like a recession …

Those fretting about a substantial downturn in the U.S. economy, need not worry. At least that’s the way Ben Bernanke sees it.

Bernanke thinks the risk of a “substantial downturn” has receded in the past month. The Fed chairman thinks that past rate cuts, Federal tax rebates, and record exports will be enough to keep the economy from any a sharp nosedive.

He’s not alone in his view. More than half of 48 private economists surveyed do not believe the U.S. economy is in or will enter a recession this year, that compares to 40 percent a month ago.

“The consensus now suggests the downturn in economic growth will be less steep than earlier feared, but the subsequent recovery to growth to its trend rate will take longer than hoped a few months ago,” according to Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

Here’s the breakdown. Third quarter growth at 1.5 percent, and fourth quarter at 1.2 percent. That’s weaker growth than previously forecast, but still not a recession in their books.

But for 2009, the group of economists think U.S. growth will be 1.9 percent, that’s the sixth month in a row that expectations have been ratcheted down.

As for inflation, they think it will average just 2.6 percent next year, compared to nearly 4 percent this year.

The group of economists also think the fed is done cutting interest rates which now stand at 2 percent, compared to 5.25 percent last September.

As to when the Fed raises interest rates, they think that won’t happen until second quarter of next year.

These guys get paid for a living to make predictions about the economy and interest rates.

Even if they and Mr. Bernanke end up being right, and the U.S. avoids a substantial downturn, it won’t feel like that to many Americans who are facing a fall in real wages, falling house prices, higher food bills, and record gasoline prices.

To them it feels like a recession, and in my book, that’s all that matters.

Tell me what you think.